Who is REAL the competition for Thor: The Dark World?
We all know Thor: The Dark World is opening Nov 8, but it is interesting that Ender’s Game will be the only competition for it opening weekend. I’ve not heard anything bad about Ender’s Game, but I’m guessing a sci-fi young adult film can only go so far. I’m not sure if it will drop fifty-percent from its 27 million dollar opening weekend, but it could be. What could drop off the map are Bad Grandpa and the disappointing Free Birds movie, but they will probably be there too.
Some of these movies out now either suffer from poor marketing or are themselves a disappointing movie, except Ender’s Game. Harrison Ford seems to be trying his best to make his movie a success. I’ve seen him on countless advertisements, internet interviews, and ad placements. If I were making Star Wars VII, I’d want this guy on my team for sure.
There are new openings Nov 8. I looked up the names of the movies when I last reported that a lump of indy films were opening against Thor: The Dark World and now I fear for their success. However, some are definitely interesting, but beating the new Thor probably isn’t in the cards. They have to open sometime I suppose and studio executives are probably betting on a different audience for their movies than might go to Thor: The Money Rake.
Yahoo Movies reports that these movies are opening (or expanding nationwide) Nov 8:
The Armstrong Lie – A documentary about Lance Armstrong and I think you can guess what the “big lie” is. It has a limited release, which means it won’t be in 3,800 theatres like Thor.
The Starving Games – A spoof comedy about the Hunger Games. It is also a limited release, which means it doesn’t really count as competition I suppose.
Best Man Down – This is a Justin Long comedy opening this weekend and I’m not sure who Justin Long is.
Reaching for The Moon – This one actually looks interesting and could pull in a majority of the indy dollars. It is about a writer, my dream job, who gets writers block and goes traveling around to find inspiration. It is a foreign movie made in Brazil/New York and will be a limited release.
12 Years a Slave – This indy film is about a man sold into slavery in pre-Civil War America. It looks fairly interesting to those who might enjoy period dramas. Having been released Oct 18, it expands nationwide Nov 8.
About Time – This is a Rachel McAdams romantic comedy vehicle which has not been promoted at all. It was released Nov 1, but expands nationwide Nov 8. It actually has already earned its budget back according to Wikipedia, which is a nice bonus.
My predictions for Nov 8 weekend (What are yours?)
- Thor: The Dark World – 89 Million
- Ender’s Game – 16.8 Million
- Bad Grandpa – 10 Million
- Las Vegas – 8 Million
- 12 Years a Slave – 2 Million
- Best Man Down – 2 Million
- Reaching for The Moon – 800,000
- Gravity – 500,000
- Free Birds – 200,000
- About Time – 100,000
- The Armstrong Lie — Less than the above
- The Starving Games – Hopefully less than the above